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2026 Verdict: NSW stars who are safe, 50/50 — and in the firing line after State of Origin collapse


Another State of Origin series has passed and with it, there is one team that celebrated long into the night and early into the morning while the other reflected on what could have been.

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If Zac Lomax had made just one of those sideline conversions in Perth. If Mitchell Moses hadn’t gone down injured.

None of it matters. Queensland are champions again. New South Wales, meanwhile, has been left to pick up the pieces.

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Laurie Daley, who signed on as Blues coach on a two-year deal, has made it clear he expects to be in charge again in 2026.

But having resisted the urge to make any changes ahead of the decider, surely Daley will make some adjustments if he stays at the helm next year?

Some previously injured stars will be available while other underperforming stars have come under the spotlight. So, who is in the firing line and who is safe?

1. Dylan Edwards (50/50)

For the most part, it feels like Edwards’ spot will be safe. At least, if the team had to be picked next week the only way he would miss out is if Laurie Daley felt like the Blues needed a stronger ball-playing option out the back to combat Queensland’s pressing defence. In that sense, Edwards’ non-selection wouldn’t so much be a reflection of what he did wrong but a preference from the coach in style of fullback. After all, Edwards churned through 236 run metres in the decider as he played a similar role to the one he does at Penrith, helping get NSW’s sets off to a strong start, especially with the forward pack struggling to get on top of Queensland. Edwards has definitely improved as a second or third option in the passing game throughout his career, but that is still largely constrained to set plays and on Wednesday night the Blues desperately needed to find an answer to the Maroons’ defensive pressure that didn’t involve always playing in structure. Edwards can create opportunities outside of structure with his tackle-breaking carries inside his own half, but outside of that his game is somewhat limited. James Tedesco is probably an upgrade in that respect, but still offers many of the same overall strengths as Edwards so at this stage the Panthers fullback looks relatively safe barring injury next year.

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2. Brian To’o (SAFE)

Like Edwards, To’o was a tackle-busting machine all series and it is incredible he was able to be so effective despite playing through a string of injuries. To’o was in doubt for the decider with a knee injury but still pumped out 208 metres to go with three tackle busts, backing up a players’ player performance in the Game 2 loss where he had a hat-trick and 205 metres. It was another 208 metres in the series opener too. Only injury could deny To’o his spot in the 2026 side. He may give up a height advantage to most wingers in the competition but he more than makes up for it with his sheer tenacity and fight on every play as well as the way he uses his insane leg drive to earn every single post-contact metre.

3. Stephen Crichton (SAFE)

The numbers were underwhelming for Crichton in Game 3, but they don’t really tell the full story. The Blues had early success when they gave him quick ball and while Gehamat Shibasaki ended up finishing on top of his opposite number, Crichton palmed him off early in the first half in what could have been a warning shot. Instead, the Blues struggled to create enough opportunities to put Crichton in a position to dominate in the big games like he has so many times before. As always, Crichton’s defence was largely strong and there is still no doubting he is among the best centres in the game.

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4. Latrell Mitchell (50/50)

It was a pretty tough night for Mitchell, who was shown up a few times by Robert Toia and pressured into a few poor decisions by the swarming Queensland defence. Still, for a Blues team that was predictable in attack and lacked creativity in the spine, Mitchell is one of the players who can create something out of nothing. Maybe the Blues should have made a more concerted effort to use Mitchell creatively in a roaming role similar to that of Tom Trbojevic, whether that meant having him as first receiver on some set plays or even switching with Dylan Edwards at fullback for some plays. Whatever it may be, Mitchell does offer the Blues optionality in that respect. The main threat to his spot, however, would be Bradman Best. The Knights centre was denied an Origin spot by injury but is still one of the most damaging runners in the league at the position and could contend for Mitchell’s spot with a strong 2026.

5. Zac Lomax (SAFE)

This may be controversial given how poor Lomax was in Game 3, but it seems like recency bias to just toss him aside considering he arguably deserved man of the match for his efforts in the series opener. His goal-kicking was obviously an issue in Perth but he rectified that in the decider, only to have a few moments to forget in defence and with his hands. The one-on-one miss on Shibasaki for the opening try was definitely poor, although Lomax was left on an island in a two-on-one situation. He made the right read, he just needed to make the tackle. Either way, unlike To’o, Lomax is an aerial specialist and while someone like Jacob Kiraz could be gunning for his spot and is another strong option to target with kicks, Lomax is a nice complement to To’o and still gets through the tough carries out the back. He had 173 metres in the decider, including 64 post-contact, to with three tackle busts. Sure, it was a tough night overall but there is too much quality there with Lomax to dump him based on that alone.

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6. Jarome Luai (IN THE FIRING LINE)

Put simply, it is hard to see Luai retaining his spot if Mitchell Moses is fit next year. Of course, there is a world where the Blues opt for Moses in the halfback jumper and suddenly the five-eighth role is open but for his limitations in the Origin arena, it still is hard to see Daley — or whoever the future Blues coach is — from dropping Cleary. But more on that shortly. To his credit, Luai looked NSW’s most dangerous option in attack given his early kicks were an effective answer to Queensland’s rushing defence. He was otherwise erratic at times, but that in itself was a product of the Maroons’ defensive pressure and in some ways at least Luai was trying to create something instead of sticking to a gameplan that wasn’t working.

7. Nathan Cleary (SAFE)

With that in mind, what do you make of another failed Origin decider from Cleary? The Blues halfback himself admitted it wasn’t good enough, so why would he be safe? Well, put simply, Origin teams are largely picked on club form and as much as Cleary hasn’t had a signature series in the same way he has dominated grand finals, it is genuinely hard to see him missing out on selection unless he and the Panthers are performing poorly next year. After all, even with Penrith struggling earlier in the season, there was still little conjecture over Cleary’s place in the team. Starting Moses at halfback with another option at five-eighth is an alternative for Daley, while Dolphins youngster Isaiya Katoa has shown maturity and poise beyond his years and is certainly pressing his claims for an Origin debut. But Daley seems too conservative to make that sort of call, so any chance of Katoa replacing Cleary likely hinges on a new coach coming on board in 2026. Otherwise, Cleary looks locked in for another shot. There is still no doubting Cleary is the best halfback in the NRL where he is seamlessly able to execute Penrith’s gameplan to perfection, consistently turning his forwards back on the inside before playing it out the back with the trademark tempo that makes him so hard to defend. But the one glaring criticism of Cleary in the Origin arena is that he falls into the trap of trying to play like he does at clubland, even if it isn’t working. The kicking game in particular was too predictable, with constant end-over-end kicks that didn’t really challenge the Maroons outside backs or give his own players time to contest them.

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8. Max King (IN THE FIRING LINE)

It is hard to be too critical of King when he is a player with a high workrate who was restricted to just 22 minutes in the decider. It was a short starting stint for the Bulldogs prop and then that was it. King is a solid workhorse who just really isn’t the best choice for a high-impact role. Maybe the idea was just to get King playing the first 20 minutes where he would get through a mountain of defensive work and he was strong in that respect with 18 tackles and none missed. It just seems like a missed opportunity for the Blues given Josh Papalii had a similar role but was far more productive with 20 tackles (one miss) and 67 metres from eight carries before Patrick Carrigan came on to replace him and changed the game. If fit and firing, you can expect Mitch Barnett to return to the starting line-up.

9. Reece Robson (50/50)

Defensively, Robson was in everything and while he gave away two penalties that directly led to Queensland tries, it would be tough to drop him on that alone. You would need more, whether it is that a better ball-playing option close to the line like Api Koroisau. But again, as is the case with Edwards, that ultimately comes down to where Cleary sits in this team. If this is supposed to be the Cleary show, players like Robson and Edwards make sense since they play a very simple and direct game which involves picking up easy metres and getting quick play-the-balls for Cleary to play off. Otherwise, if Cleary needs the extra option to relieve the playmaking pressure Koroisau would make more sense. But that would say more about Cleary than Robson. Either way, there will always be a score of hookers pushing their case for selection. Wayde Egan and Blayke Brailey have been brought up in the past. Koroisau has been floated as a bench option.

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10. Payne Haas (SAFE)

He was spotted with a back heater on Wednesday but you wouldn’t have known Haas was compromised in any way by his performance in the decider. Another 113 metres, 50 of which came post-contact, to go with six tackle busts and 30 tackles (none missed). Haas’ carries and offloads were one of the few things that looked a chance of breaking the Queensland defence and his spot in the team is definitely not in doubt.

11. Liam Martin (SAFE)

A relatively ineffective game from Martin, but it is hard to be too critical of him given the Panthers forward appeared to pick up a hand injury early in the contest. He obviously was adamant he was fine to play on because otherwise Daley had a fresh Hudson Young on the bench to fill in. Either way, Martin plays with the kind of mongrel and aggression that makes him a perfect Origin player and he still seems locked into a starting role moving forward.

12. Angus Crichton (SAFE)

The same goes for Crichton. He had a pretty solid output with 89 metres, although the fact they came from 14 carries means most of Crichton’s runs weren’t all that effective. It was defensively where Crichton was really shown up though, missing five tackles including an important one on Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. Still, Crichton was one of NSW’s best in a strong 18-6 win earlier in the series, making a dent with every carry as he topped 127 metres, including 50 post-contact, to go with three tackle busts. There is still a very capable Origin player there in Crichton and it is still hard to see him losing his spot, with Martin and Crichton holding the starting second row spots all of last series.

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13. Isaah Yeo (SAFE)

Now, there could be a change to Yeo’s role in the team when Cameron Murray is fit, especially when you consider the Blues struggled to find a consistent front row option alongside Haas. Yeo is one of the best forwards in the league at picking up post-contact metres. He does it in a different way to Haas. It isn’t sheer force or explosive power but a tireless will to squeeze out every metre he can, while Yeo also has a late offload and is obviously a ball-playing option in the middle too. Yeo was heavily involved again in the decider with 101 metres and 43 tackles (one missed), so it is hard to see him missing out on selection if healthy.

14. Connor Watson (IN THE FIRING LINE)

Watson makes plenty of sense as a do-it-all utility option off the bench, so if the Blues want to go in that direction instead of the luxury of a specialist hooker he makes sense. The bigger question is whether NSW should try find an 80-minute option at hooker given Watson’s service out of dummy-half was erratic at times during the series. You could tell he was trying to create something, which you couldn’t blame him for given Queensland’s suffocating defence was limiting NSW’s opportunities inside of structure, but the Blues playmakers didn’t seem to be on the same page. Maybe that is more of an issue to address at training, but either way if Robson remains the No.9 next year it is a question of whether someone like Koroisau takes this spot. He would give the Blues a genuine one-two punch at hooker while also offering the versatility of being able to play in the halves given someone like Hudson Young is capable of shifting to the centres if needed.

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15. Spencer Leniu (50/50)

Leniu fills a very specific role for the Blues and actually makes sense as a limited-minute, high-impact forward off the bench unlike some other teammates who had similar playing time. Really, he didn’t do a whole lot wrong nor did he do quite enough to lock up his spot for next year’s series. Stefano Utoikamanu’s spot looks the more likely to be in jeopardy, with Terrell May and Keaon Koloamatangi still the two obvious options to replace him if the series continued next week while other in-form forwards may put their hands up. A fit Murray would also potentially bump someone like Yeo back to the bench, so that is where Leniu’s spot could be a question depending on the make-up of the rest of the bench.

16. Hudson Young (IN THE FIRING LINE)

Ricky Stuart won’t be happy if Young is dumped from the team again. The Raiders coach took aim at NSW selector’s “disgraceful” treatment of the second rower last year and once again, it looks like Young could end up being a victim of playing in a role that just doesn’t suit his game. As long as Martin and Crichton are NSW’s starting second rowers, you could make the argument that someone like May or Koloamatangi makes more sense than forcing a square peg into a round hole by trying to make an 80-minute second rower like Young into a limited-minutes option in the middle off the bench. After all, if you have someone like Martin struggling through a hand injury and even then Young doesn’t get on earlier than the second half, why is he even there?

17. Stefano Utoikamanu (IN THE FIRING LINE)

With a healthy Murray in the frame, you’d think Utoikamanu is the first player to drop out. Either way, after another game which saw the Blues dominated up front, there will be a shake-up to the forward pack and with Barnett likely to re-join the starting team if fit, that means changes to the bench and the Storm forward just looked like he got gassed too quickly to make enough of an impact in his role.

POTENTIAL 2026 NSW STATE OF ORIGIN TEAM

1. Dylan Edwards

2. Brian To’o

3. Stephen Crichton

4. Latrell Mitchell

5. Zac Lomax

6. Mitchell Moses

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Mitchell Barnett

9. Reece Robson

10. Payne Haas

11. Liam Martin

12. Angus Crichton

13. Cameron Murray

14. Apisai Koroisau

15. Isaah Yeo

16. Keaon Koloamatangi

17. Terrell May



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